A question specific to this board
 

I know where people in general stand. I am curious what part PMs are playing in your over all picture for survival prep.

Also today's news on no more dollars for oil is not a good sign people!!!

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I plan on clutching the few pieces of gold and silver that i can get my grubby mitts on as i am burned to a cinder in the DOOOM that is heading our way.
:wink:

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The only role PMs play in my plan is wealth preservation. I certainly don't expect PMs to make me rich but I do expect them to keep me from going poor like anyone else left holding worthless paper when TSHTF.

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You know I am coming to appreciate your odd sense of humor. :D

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I will die standing up like a man, with my pockets full of gold and my rifle smoking hot!
:tongue_ma:

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If you are talking about "SURVIVAL PREP" then PMs have almost NO value to me. You can't eat gold nor can you buy food with gold when there is no product to buy.

The only purpose I see for PMs is wealth preservation only AFTER your have your tangible survival needs met.

Dave

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QWAK,Avalon,GOLD and SILVER are MONEY --- MONEY IS and has always been a TOOL which can be used for both CREATION of somthing NEW or the DISTRUCTION of somthing OLD!:thinkey::yes:

I am inclined to be IDEALISTIC :laugh: It gets me in to TROUBLE and back OUT agen!:D

My plan is to SURVIVE and use what I have SAVED to help self and others BUILD somthing BETTER!:wink:

Just SURVIVING is NOT good enough as it would/will not realy change any thing for the FUTURE.

the DUCK

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I'm with Dave. I'm in full out Prep mode right now. When I go to the store, I see everything there as a possible barter item later, or as money itself. If you look at it that way, everything looks like a giveaway right now. Now is the time to be buying preps, while everything is still dirt cheap, AND AVAILABLE! I said this yesterday, anyone who is sitting and waiting for their metals to be worth a certain dollar amount per ounce, and at the same time is not preparing by stocking up now, is CRAZY! You bought your metals on the cheap and watched them go up in value, do the same with the everyday items you're going to need to live!

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Balance is everything. You have to prepare for the basics; food, water, shelter. You have to be able to protect yourself and your family. You need to be able to create HOPE for a future. All of these things will be necessary in there own right. As well as an acceptable form of exchange or barter. It is advantageous to be able to prepare for as many levels as possible, now, while it is relatively inexpensive to do so. PM's are part of that scenario.

One area I don't hear about people preparing for is "clothing" Will you even be able to go buy a pair of jeans, or good shoes, socks, underwear. Certain things will become luxuries. People will learn to protect and take much better care of their clothes. There is a local story around here from the depression times about a woman who used to do much of her gardening and barn work either nude or pretty close. As it turned out she had no money to buy clothes and this was an acceptable option to her to keep from ruining what she had. She was quite the scandal. However, one of the men who used to see her bathe in the creek ended up marrying her. Smart girl??

I know you can't prepare for everything, but a few things now, will go a long way if/when TSHTF. After that PM's will really be nice to have.

sb

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Mtnman,

Yes sir, that is exactly what I am thinking! I will get my PMs much easier when people are willing to buy tangibles I bought relatively inexpensively now for a premium in the future (post-shtf)!

I like the idea of spending $20 on 50lbs of rice now and getting a half or quarter ounce of gold for it in the future because it would be worth it to the purchaser who needs to eat.

Dave

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What about other posters who have said that WTSHTF, they expect that a mercury dime will buy a bag of groceries? Both of these can't be right.

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Free market systems set price on supply and demand. When you have a HUGE demand and a limited supply who is to say PMs or fiat will buy anything? They may be only accepting trade for the things they need, so you are back to bartering.

I would much rather be the seller than the purchaser in that situation, unless of course I have tangibles that the seller value then you will be getting fair trade.

Dave

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Why can't they both be right? It depends on supply and demand, which can vary from product to product, from one region to another, or from one season to the next. One set of conditions may obtain in the weeks after TSHTF, and another may obtain months and years later.

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Which is what takes us back to how PMs evolved into money in the first place. Our ancestors bartered. Traded 1 bushel of corn for half a bushel of tomatoes, for example. But what if you have a cow and the guy who would trade for your cow only has corn? Granted, he has lot's of corn, enough to equal the value of your cow- but you don't need so much corn nor do you have the facility to properly store it. Thus arose the mediums of exchange called money. And after much trial and error gold and silver became the most dependable and widely recognized medium of exchange. That is the purpose I see in PMs when TSHTF.

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This is totally off topic, but for the benefit of anyone who finds himself in this situation, the burden and long-term spoilage risk of storing corn is very greatly reduced by first converting the corn to whiskey.

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The only thing you have to keep in mind is when will there be corn, cows, tomatoes, etc. on the market all at one time so a recognized medium will be accepted for payment? The idea of PMs for an accepted medium I agree is logical but you have to make sure you account for the amount of time it will take for things to normalize before PMs will be accepted in trade for tangibles at large.

I don't know about you but if I am selling wheat but needed a cow, why would I accept gold for my wheat when there is no guarantee the individual selling the cow will accept gold? The other thing you have to keep in mind is market conditions will be dictated on the severity of SHTF. If we are simply talking about a moderate recession and the electric grids are still functioning and I am not worried about basic survival then PMs make more sense but if we are talking about a more severe SHTF situation I honestly couldn't tell you how long it would take before a medium like PMs would be universally accepted if ever.

In my opinion, I feel it best to get squared away on tangibles first because I frankly don't want to depend my life on PMs being accepted for trade on items I can't live without.

Dave

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Good off topic point brother! :beer:

Dave

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don't forget, woman don't have anything to wear during a depression, so throw in a few nighties along with the liquid corn for bartering....should pull ya through just about any scenerio..

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My gold is purely a hedge for my homestead savings. We are saving up "cash" (about 100 ounces) to buy a few acres and build a home. If I tried to do this with paper money I'd be chasing the falling dollar (and losing). Gold gives me the opportunity to lock in the value of my savings... and maybe actually GAIN as gold finds its real value.

My survival preperation is to wean my family off money -- ANY form of money. We want total independence. We don't want to be dependent on anyone to provide anything necessary for survival. I'm not talking about stockpiling, because you can only store so much stuff and eventually it will either spoil or be depleted. I'm talking about PRODUCING the things we need to survive.

(Forgive my repetition...) The most VALUABLE things in life are those things without which you would die most quickly. In this order:

1. Air
2. Water
3. Food
4. Shelter
5. Heat
6. Defensive Weapon

If you can actually PRODUCE these 6 things in sufficient quantity to sustain your family then there is no reason to stockpile or hoard g/s for barter.

To chase the idea further (sorry if this is too OT), here is how simple it is to "prep" to produce:

1. Air - Get some gas masks and cannisters appropriate for biological/chemical filtration.
2. Water - Locate on a property with a guaranteed water source (spring/well) and own a Berkey.
3. Food - Plant a large garden, can, raise chickens/goats/cows. Be sure that your property is suitable pasture for your animals (so you don't have to buy their food).
4. Shelter - Build an efficient structure INDEPENDENT of "public services" (city water, sewer, electricity, gas, etc.).
5. Heat - Make sure your property has enough wooded land to provide adequate renewable energy for your wood stove.
6. Defensive Weapon - Own several firearms (and blades). Be sure you have the ability to manufacture ammunition. Stockpile supplies if necessary.

There is no way I know of to get around the need to stockpile ammunition supplies. Even if you cast your own bullets (as I do) you need to stockpile lead (such as wheel weights), brass, and primers. You can go with a muzzle-loader and eliminate the need for brass, and if you are really nuts you can own a flint-lock and make your own gun powder. But you had better stockpile flints. At this point you are probably better off with a big knife/sword.

BUT... I will say that it is probably wise to have a bag of 90% just in case.

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Excellent post.

No need for money/PMs etc. if you can produce most of what you need. This is the way I see it as well. Hedging on PMs for wealth preservation like in your case is wise in my eyes, especially with the intent to become independent! Even with the slight decline in gold, if you dollar cost averaged your investment over time you still are benefiting on the decline of USD.

Dave

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I don't care about the PRICE of gold. That merely shows us the fickle nature of the currency market. The VALUE of gold is constant, and we have yet to see a "price" for gold in the market place that exceeded the "value" of gold. This is why I am still a buyer at this price even though the price may fall. Gold is on sale -- it might be a better sale tomorrow or less of a sale. Who cares -- buy gold; it is still cheap.

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Poor choice of wording on my own part since I always tell people not to look at gold as an investment but rather a wealth preserver. My statement was meant to reflect the fiat fluctuation really to any commodity with gold be the choice vehicle in this discussion.

Any ways, back to your point- market demand sets value and people are still buying.

Dave

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Dave's post sums it up for me

my preps are gonna save my ass, right away
while my PM's sit in the corner, for future use

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Not expecting Mad Max here. My PM's are for preservation of buying power, and therefor preservation of standard of living.

There is a great adjustment taking place, and it will take place slowly (hopefully) rather than rapidly. That is the "coming online" of several billions of new consumers and workers. These newcomers live at a remarkably lower standard than westerners. They have already demonstrated their willingness to work for next to nothing (in western terms) and they have also demonstrated their appetite for western living standards. This means two things are going to happen:

1. Western living standards must fall, or western societies must continuously technologically advance their economies. In other words, there is no point making sneakers in the US with $12.00 an hour labor when you can make them in Vietnam for $0.50 and hour. We should be using highly skilled workers to make highly sophisticated products (like aircraft, robots, blah blah blah).

2. Pressure on commodities for consumption and industrial / commercial use is going to continue to increase.


Both of these factors are extremely inflationary IMO. The fall of western living standards will be accomplished through debasement of the currency. The pressure on commodities will exacerbate the buying power of western currencies. Holding PM's is one of the few ways to mitigate the effects of this trend.

All it really means is that my living standard won't fall as much as my neighbors. But fall it will, I am afraid.

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in my opinion, PMs are an investment first and a survival prep a distant second. If things go REALLY bad, gold/silver will be worthless for a while because survival goods will not be for sale at ANY price other than barter for other survival goods.

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Excellent point. If there is ever a situation where the economy and/or banking system locks up then you will need enough food, water, and other survival items to get through the intial shakeup. Gold/Silver will still transport and come out as valuable once the economy starts to stabalize.

I realized this about 6 months ago and have been on a sprint to create a decent pantry. I am almost where I am questioning if I am going beyond my needs. I can see getting back into buying PM's soon.

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What happens when oil runs out? That is, when the cost of producing oil limits its availability to the point that and our current living standards cannot be sustained? Living standards will diminish ever more rapidly, no? Then what? Massive population die-off due to starvation? Mad Max?

Don't you see this as almost inevitable? Just a matter of time?

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Remember in Mad Max, when Master let Tina Turner know who was really in charge? "Master says Oil Embargo On" Only until she says his name does he remove the oil embargo. Then when his muscle is defeated, he is shown for the shell of a man that he is. Sort of a microcausm of how things are/will be.

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I only see 3 ways the world can go.

1. Rocks along about the same as it has in my lifetime.....they keep printing fiat money at an ever increasing rate and the world population continues to grow...buy some gold. The industrial world keeps using silver faster than it can be mined, and at some point, silver will seek it's true value, buy some silver.

2. We slide into a slow, long downward depression, and I need to keep the property taxes paid to keep the farm ( ala 1930 ).....my FRNs are not cutting it anymore, and so, I sell some of my PMs so I don't loose my means of living to the county taxman. Buy some gold or silver.

3. The world goes totally to crap, we get knocked back to about the 18th century for the rest of my life....at some point, gold and silver may come back as money.....the examples of barter above ( tomatoes for corn ) are good.....even corn into whiskey, which WAS a form of money on the frontier, is good.....but PMs represent a concentrated store of value, one which the age of the cow, or the shelf life of tomatoes doesn't matter, which is WHY it became money....because you could store a season's worth of labor in a pocket full of coins ( or less with gold ).

I reached my comfort point of PMs quite a while back....that being enough to pay my property tax for the rest of my life, and then some.....so I'm NOT a buyer in any amount any more.

IF I had tons and tons of cash, I probably would convert most of it for wealth preservation....but I'm not wealthy ( in money terms ) and don't really ever care if I am.....I simply want to live in relative comfort for the rest of my years.....we have no heirs, and frankly, when we die, I flat don't give a crap WHAT happens to our place or stuff....so the bottom line now, is, I spend what I have on projects and objects designed to make reasonable assurance my level of comfort ( like I can EAT ) stays about the same for the next 30-40 years.

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Great response to this thread. I'm seriously thinking of liquidating a mining stock I have over 12k in. Its a big decision for me. I will probably use a portion for preps but I am trying to decide if more PMs are the way to go with some of the cash. I think we are getting some serious signals that things are heating up. A slow hyperinflation is how we will be taken down as a nation. This is like watching a train wreck in slow motion.

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There is no such thing as a slow hyperinflation. Hyperinflation is, by definition, when compounding interest gets out of control and the money supply grows to meet its own self-bearing interest demands (since money is debt). A low compounding interest rate only delays the time until the crisis arrives (when the exponential curve turns northward and the rate goes from imperceptible to very perceptible). At that point, when all recognizes hyperinflation, the interest rate matters not for the inflation rate has grown to a monster of its own proportions and prices double every day or faster whether you like it or not.

Slow hyperinflation is a contradiction in terms, like being almost pregnant or being "mostly dead".

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Thanks for the lesson. In any case I think we will all be in deep do-do soon. :D

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Daddy? Is that you...?:D

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QWAK,:hahaha::haha::haha:

the DUCK

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With enough indentured servitude, it could be..... :D

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Drew, Drew, Drew...quit trying to play the field. You know we're going strait to #3 within the next few years! :shocked_ma:

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For the present time this is pretty much what I'm doing about PM's.

I'm putting my FRN's into building up my micro-farm. The chicks are growing good, the new coop is just about ready. I'll be fencing in a large lot for them to range... putting money into fence to save on feed.. Next I may put in some pigs, one thing at a time.

When summer comes, I may buy a little more gold or silver if the price goes down. However, it may be as low right now as we'll ever see it. But, food production is on the top of my list. I have the space to grow my own, so storing food is not even as important to me as setting up to produce it.

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I wholeheartedly agree with Andy's position. But Andy, I have a feeling you will be a blessing to many people along the way. You don't seem to be the selfish, self centered type.

sb

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Well, let's say when I croak, there is gonna be one REALLY nice animal shelter in this county....ahahahahahaaa

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Oil will never run out. There will be oil for sale in 200 years. There will be precious little of it, and it will be expensive, but there will be oil. We WON'T be burning it in our cars.

We had an oil shock before, 1974, anyone old enough to remember? I am. Another difficult economic period, though with less background badness (failing banks, etc) than what we face now. Energy makes everything possible. Replacements will be found, and conservation measures will be implemented. Anyone remember the Chrysler "K" car? The sudden resurgence of small cars? Hell, Honda Motors rose to prominence on high gas prices. Anyone remember that damned little death trap 1600cc POS 4 seater that Honda came to market with? One of the guys I was in the service with drove a little foreign POS that you could literally reach out of the window and put your hand on the ground, but it got great mileage. WE HAVE BEEN HERE BEFORE. Someone else here is fond of saying "history doesn't repeat, but it rhymes". The house I was in in Base Housing had NO INSULATION, having been built in the 40's. NONE, in the midwest too. -20F in the winter. Gas heat, no insulation.

Small cars are the rage....again. Energy conservation is the rage.....again. My god, even solar is the rage....again.

The arabs hate high oil prices, because high prices for their energy makes us look for replacements and ways to cut down on consumption. We will find ways, and we will find replacements. It will take time, but it will happen. We did it before, with notably less technical sophistication. High oil prices make expensive deposits recoverable. All this limits to growth / carrying capacity of the planet crap got sparked in 1974 too. And that wasn't the first time.

Thomas Malthus:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusian_catastrophe

We were supposed to die off a long time ago.

There is no Mad Max scenario, unless we start chucking nukes around, and then not having gas for you car will be the least of your problems.

Your worry, IMO, is that we are in for a severe bout of inflation, and economic stress, and it's gonna come and stay awhile. We will print our way out of this. Your other worry is China. China is going to be a problem long term.

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Very good summary of my own reasons for investing in PM and my goals for future independence. Also, I can only justify having so much food preps (rice, grains), when our current number of months or years of stored food, plus our orchard, seems plenty. Then where to store any excess cumshaw generated? I'll take metal, any day. I have to say that I have probably crossed the line into speculation, but with the portion of my $ that is "trapped" in IRA; what else to do but build an all PM portfolio (plus the occasional ultra-short etf or puts)?

PMs (and shorts) are my hedge, my umbrella. If it doesn't "rain" (Sdoesn'tHTF), then I won't need it. If gold investment sucks and markets stay strong, then it's OK for my investment to suck because (probably) I stay employed and other benefits. But if conditions do deteriorate, then PMs and shorts could be the lifeboat that saves the family when all else fails.

No reason not to, though, eh? :bear_w00t:

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I think about PM's from a slightly different perspective (in addition to the ideas listed above).

I think if we happen to avoid the US debt, sinking dollar, inflation, trade imbalance (including oil) disaster ... the boomer retirement is gonna sink us anyway.

Whenever we "bail out" one mismanaged government entitlement (or private investment bank for that matter); all we are truly doing is adding to our taxes (and the taxes of our children). You see, all the money the government has is taken (or will be taken in the future) from the people whom the government "serves". When the government gives that money to entitlements, charities, mortgage bail outs, "loses" a few billion in Iraq, the UN, NATO, war, expensive government defense contracts (and other bogus gifts to the insiders), investment firm bail outs, or simply giving everyone (well everyone but me) say $300 to $600 to piss away ... well that money has to come from somewhere or from someone sometime in the future (deficit).

The boomers are the tipping point I think into a real and completely unavoideable crisis brought about solely from the combination of excessive government spending (see above) and FIAT currency. When the boomers begin to remove money from their 401k's, the market that the FED is throwing the dollar under the train to protect will drop by some estimates up to 50% anyway simply from the mass removal of assets to pay retirement expenses. Add to that paying the national debt (TAX INCREASE); the unfunded pension liabilities (TAX INCREASE); many fewer tax payers (TAX INCREASE); more entitlements being paid to double the number of retirees (TAX INCREASE); repaying the money stolen from the "locked box" for Social Security (TAX INCREASE); democrats leading the charge with massive new federal spending and the opinion that the 10% who pay 85% or so of the taxes are just plain selfish mentality (TAX INCREASE) and well, hopefully you can see my point. How much can they increase taxes to cover these tax increases? Answer: Not nearly enough! Especially considering my "selfish" arse is already paying almost 50% in federal (with Social Security & Medicare), state and local taxes ... and for those checks you are all getting this month. All levels of government will soon be looking for any wealth at all to tax. If you live in a really nice home ... sell it now. As soon as the federal government gets in a pinch, they will cut off funds to the state. The state, in turn, will cut of funds to the local governments ... giving you HUGE Property Taxes as the local government's best and most reliable way of raising funds.

PM's, to me, are a way of placing away wealth not only for when things go south (and rebuilding during any recovery), but also as a way to preserve wealth and pass something along to my son (not like TN Andy) without my earning being taxed a second time (see Death Tax). After all, it is my son's generation that will really have to bear the burden of this government's spending and socialist tendencies as my peak in life has long passed. So if you ever want to have anything in your life (or have a chance to help your children in their life) ... best be hiding your wealth well for the next 10-20 years. Your 401K's, IRA's, stocks ... nothing but easy targets.

By the way TN Andy. My son could use a God Father .... I could think of none better.:D

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Sooooooo many potential family members, soooooooo little time...... :D

If I had children, Waylon, land and PMs would be the way I'd go for a physical inheritance, but the best thing anyone can do for children is instill a well grounded amount of common sense and a good personal work ethic.